South Africa’s First Table Grape Crop Estimate for 2025/26 Signals Quality Harvest and Stable Supply
The South African table grape industry has released its first crop estimate for the 2025/26 season, projecting a stable harvest that is expected to meet international demand with consistent quality. According to the South African Table Grape Industry (SATI), the national crop is forecast at 79.4 million cartons (4.5 kg equivalent), with a possible upper limit of 81.7 million cartons and a lower limit of 77.0 million cartons.
This figure represents a 0.6% increase on the 2024/25 season’s inspected export volumes and a 6.6% rise above the five-year average, reflecting steady production growth and improved yield efficiency across the industry.
Regional Outlook
The distribution of estimated volumes across South Africa’s key grape-growing regions shows a mixed picture (see Table 1).
- Northern Provinces: 5.1 million cartons, slightly above the previous season but below the five-year average due to a 14% reduction in planted area.
- Orange River: 25.6 million cartons, maintaining its role as the country’s largest production region and showing steady growth in line with the five-year average.
- Olifants River: 3.7 million cartons, reflecting a 5% decline in planted area compared with the five-year average.
- Berg River: 19.5 million cartons, broadly consistent with both last season and historical averages.
- Hex River: 25.5 million cartons, marginally up from last year and in line with the long-term trend.
Table 1 – First Crop Estimate for the 2025/26 Season (million 4.5 kg equivalent cartons):
| Region | 5-Year Average | 2024/25 Actual | 2025/26 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Provinces | 6.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Orange River | 21.3 | 25.0 | 25.6 |
| Olifants River | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.7 |
| Berg River | 19.2 | 19.4 | 19.5 |
| Hex River | 23.8 | 25.3 | 25.5 |
| National | 74.5 | 78.9 | 79.4 |
Weather and Agronomic Conditions
Alwyn Dippenaar, chairperson of SATI, attributed the positive outlook to favourable climatic conditions:
“Good winter conditions prevailed, with sufficient chill units to support even budbreak and adequate winter rainfall to increase dam levels favourably, which bodes well for water availability in a normal season.”
The stabilisation of total planted area has also contributed to a more balanced outlook. While South Africa’s total table grape area has declined marginally by 0.4% from last year, standing at 19,400 hectares in 2025, the figure is only 3% below the five-year average. Importantly, the slight contraction in land use has been offset by higher yields from new generation varieties, driving production efficiency.
Industry Confidence and Global Markets
SATI CEO Mecia Petersen emphasised the industry’s ability to meet international demand:
“South Africa is well placed to provide a consistent, quality crop that meets global consumer preferences to all markets.”
This assurance aligns with South Africa’s long-standing position as a reliable supplier to Europe, the UK, North America, Asia, and the Middle East. The industry’s commitment to quality and reliability is further reinforced by SATI’s Prescriptive Logistics Model, which leverages value chain data to identify optimal routes to market. The model not only enhances export efficiency but also supports on-farm decision-making by providing real-time regional insights.
A Cautious but Positive Outlook
The first crop estimate is described by SATI as a “reasonable deduction” based on prevailing conditions and historical trends. As in previous years, figures may be adjusted as the season progresses and new data becomes available.
For now, however, the 2025/26 outlook suggests that South Africa’s table grape industry is entering the new season on solid footing: with a stable planted area, increasing productivity, and strong market positioning built on decades of export reliability.
